More than $2.4 billion in crypto options are set to expire at 08:00 UTC today on Deribit, a positioning event that could inject fresh volatility into the market.
Summary
- Around $2.0B in Bitcoin and $404M in Ethereum contracts are set to roll off on Deribit, raising the potential for short-term volatility.
- Bitcoin’s put/call ratio of 0.59 and Ethereum’s 0.75 reflect constructive sentiment, with max pain at $70,000 for BTC and $2,050 for ETH.
- BTC faces resistance near $69,500–$70,000 and support at $65,000, while ETH must clear $2,000–$2,050 to confirm upside momentum.
According to Deribit data, $2 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options and $404 million in Ethereum (ETH) options will roll off.
For Bitcoin, the put/call ratio stands at 0.59, signaling call-heavy positioning and a stronger upside skew. The max pain level is $70,000, slightly above current spot levels, suggesting price could gravitate toward that area into expiry.
Ethereum’s put/call ratio sits at 0.75, reflecting more balanced but still constructive positioning, with max pain at $2,050.
Large options expiries can trigger short-term volatility, especially with positioning skewed toward calls. With $2 billion in Bitcoin and over $400 million in Ethereum contracts expiring, dealer hedging around key strikes, notably $70,000 for BTC and $2,050 for ETH, could pin prices near those levels.
However, a decisive move beyond them may amplify momentum through gamma-driven flows, increasing the odds of a sharp breakout.
Crypto market prediction: Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin trades around $67,850 on the daily chart, attempting to stabilize after a sharp early-February sell-off that dragged price from the mid-$90,000s to a local low near $60,000. Since that flush, BTC has been consolidating between roughly $65,000 and $70,000.
Technically, price remains below the 50-day DEMA near $69,500, which now acts as immediate resistance. A sustained break above $69,500–$70,000 would open the door toward $72,000 and potentially the mid-$70,000 region.
On the downside, support sits around $65,000, followed by the psychological $60,000 level — the zone that previously attracted strong dip buying.
Momentum indicators show bearish pressure easing but not fully reversed. The Balance of Power histogram remains negative, though red bars are shrinking, signaling waning selling intensity. A decisive push toward the $70,000 max pain level could accelerate short-term flows tied to options hedging.
Ethereum (ETH) price prediction
Ethereum, meanwhile, trades near $1,958 after sliding from above $3,000 in January to a recent low around $1,900. The daily chart shows ETH attempting to form a base just below the $2,000 psychological level.
The RSI sits near 34, recovering from oversold territory but still below the neutral 50 mark, indicating momentum remains fragile.
Immediate resistance is clustered between $2,000 and $2,050, notably close to the max pain level. A break above that zone could trigger a squeeze toward $2,200. Support lies near $1,900, with a deeper floor around $1,800.
With positioning skewed toward calls, particularly in Bitcoin, traders will be watching whether price gravitates toward max pain levels or breaks decisively as contracts expire, potentially setting the tone for the next directional move.